A Complex Social Network Analyses of Online Finanical Communties in Times of Geopolitcal Military and Terrorist Events

Given the advances in technology the field of social network analysis has very much hit the forefront in recent years. The information age harnesses the use of social network analysis for multiple industries and for solving complex problems. Social network analysis is an important tool in the world of the military and counter intelligence, whether it’s the capture of Osama Bin Laden or uncovering hidden Al Qaeda terrorist networks, the world around us is built on networks, be that hidden or otherwise. Online social networks give new information in the world of intelligence agencies similarly online financial communities such as Yahoo Finance gives intelligent information to knowledge hungry investors. This thesis is concerned with the exploration and exploitation of online financial community dynamics and networks using social network analysis (SNA) as a mechanism. Social network analysis measurement techniques will be applied to understand the reaction of online investors to military and terrorist geopolitical events, the stock market’s reaction to these events and if it is possible to predict military stock prices after military and terrorist geopolitical events

The Terror Network Industrial Complex: A Measurement and Analysis of Terrorist Networks and War Stocks

This paper presents a measurement study and analysis of the structure of multiple Islamic terrorist networks to determine if similar characteristics exist between those networks. We examine data gathered from four terrorist groups: Al-Qaeda, ISIS, Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) consisting of six terror networks. Our study contains 471 terrorists’ nodes and 2078 links. Each terror network is compared in terms efficiency, communication and composition of network metrics. The paper examines the effects these terrorist attacks had on US aerospace and defence stocks (herein War stocks). We found that the Islamic terror groups increase recruitment during the planned attacks, communication increases during and after the attacks between the subordinate terrorists and low density is a common feature of Islamic terrorist groups. The Al- Qaeda organisation structure was the most complex and superior in terms of secrecy, diameter, clustering, modularity and density. Jemaah Islamiyah followed a similar structure but not as superior. The ISIS and LeT organisational structures were more concerned with the efficiency of the operation rather than secrecy. We found that war stocks prices and the S+P 500 were lower the day after the attacks, however, the war stocks slightly outperformed the S+P 500 the day after the attacks. Further, we found that war stock prices were significantly lower one month after the terrorist attacks but the S+P 500 rebounded one month later

Why CAIeRO? Perceptions and impact of ten years of CAIeRO at the University of Northampton

The purpose of this report is to provide an evidence-based critical reflection on CAIeRO (Creating Aligned Interactive educational Resource Opportunities), a structured workshop used for programme and module design and redesign at the University of Northampton. CAIeRO is a two-day workshop, attended by the module teaching team and run by a trained, independent facilitator. A CAIeRO may also involve students, external examiners, critical friends and other stakeholders, such as employers

BREXIT: A granger causality of twitter political polarisation on the FTSE 100 Index and the Pound

BREXIT is the single biggest geopolitical event in British history since WWII. Whilst the political fallout has become a tragicomedy, the political ramifications has had a profound impact on the Pound and the FTSE 100 index. This paper examines Twitter political discourse surrounding the BREXIT withdrawal agreement. In particular we focus on the discussions around four different exit strategies known as “Norway”, “Article 50”, the“Backstop” and “No Deal” and their effect on the pound and FTSE 100 index from the period of rumblings of the cancellation of the Meaning Vote on December 10th 2018 inclusive of second defeat on the Prime Minister’s BREXIT exit strategy on February 14th to February 24th 2019. Our approach focuses on using a Naive Bayes classification algorithm to assess political party and public Twitter sentiment. A Granger causality analysis is then introduced to investigate the hypothesis that BREXIT political and public sentiment, as measured by the twitter sentiment time series, is indicative of changes in the GBP/EUR Fx and FTSE 100 Index. Our results indicate that the accuracy of the “Article 50” scenario had the single biggest effect on short run dynamics on the FTSE 100 index, additionally the “Norway” BREXIT strategy has a marginal effect on the FTSE 100 index whilst there was no significant causation to the GBP/EUR Fx

Researching sport management

In this chapter we will discuss the importance of sport management research as well as the different research methods currently employed by sport management researchers. By looking at the current state of research in sport management, we can examine what the future of sport management research may look like – how new and innovative ways of conceptualizing and investigating issues of importance to sport management researchers and practitioners can offer potential solutions to emerging problems in the world of sport management research. There is not just one way to do research. Some people do undertake research from this perspective whilst others are critical of the methods used by different researchers. Instead research should be disciplined inquiry, not a set of specific procedures. The two main types of research are basic and applied. Basic research deals primarily with theoretical problems, and these results are not intended to have immediate application. Applied research, on the other hand, strives to answer questions that have direct value to the practitioner. Sport management research is not only important for the researcher. By undertaking relevant research that asks and seeks answers to important questions and issues that are of direct relevance to practitioners, we are developing not only proficient researchers but proficient and informed consumers of research

Economic irrationality is optimal during noisy decision making

According to normative theories, reward-maximizing agents should have consistent preferences. Thus, when faced with alternatives A, B, and C, an individual preferring A to B and B to C should prefer A to C. However, it has been widely argued that humans can incur losses by violating this axiom of transitivity, despite strong evolutionary pres- sure for reward-maximizing choices. Here, adopting a biologically plausible computational framework, we show that intransitive (and thus economically irrational) choices paradoxically improve accuracy (and subsequent economic rewards) when decision formation is cor- rupted by internal neural noise. Over three experiments, we show that humans accumulate evidence over time using a “selective inte- gration” policy that discards information about alternatives with mo- mentarily lower value. This policy predicts violations of the axiom of transitivity when three equally valued alternatives differ circularly in their number of winning samples. We confirm this prediction in a fourth experiment reporting significant violations of weak stochastic transitivity in human observers. Crucially, we show that relying on selective integration protects choices against “late” noise that other- wise corrupts decision formation beyond the sensory stage. Indeed, we report that individuals with higher late noise relied more strongly on selective integration. These findings suggest that violations of ra- tional choice theory reflect adaptive computations that have evolved in response to irreducible noise during neural information processing

Opportunities for earlier diagnosis of type 1 diabetes in children: A case-control study using routinely collected primary care records.

BACKGROUND: The epidemiology of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) suggests diagnostic delays may contribute to children developing diabetic ketoacidosis at diagnosis. We sought to quantify opportunities for earlier diagnosis of T1DM in primary care. METHODS: A matched case-control study of children (0-16 years) presenting to UK primary care, examining routinely collected primary care consultation types and National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) warning signs in the 13 weeks before diagnosis. RESULTS: Our primary analysis included 1920 new T1DM cases and 7680 controls. In the week prior to diagnosis more cases than controls had medical record entries (663, 34.5% vs 1014, 13.6%, odds ratio 3.46, 95% CI 3.07-3.89; p<0.0001) and the incidence rate of face-to-face consultations was higher in cases (mean 0.32 vs 0.11, incidence rate ratio 2.90, 2.61-3.21; p<0.0001). The preceding week entries were found in 330 cases and 943 controls (17.2% vs 12.3%, OR 1.49, 1.3-1.7, p<0.0001), but face-to-face consultations were no different (IRR 1.08 (0.9-1.29, p=0.42)). INTERPRETATION: There may be opportunities to reduce time to diagnosis for up to one third of cases, by up to two weeks. Diagnostic opportunities might be maximised by measures that improve access to primary care, and public awareness of T1DM

Proton transfer in surface-stabilized chiral motifs of croconic acid

The structure and cooperative proton ordering of two-dimensional sheets of croconic acid were studied with scanning tunneling microscopy and first-principles calculations. Unlike in the crystalline form, which exhibits a pleated, densely packed polar sheet structure, the confinement of the molecules to the surface results in hydrogenbonded chiral clusters and networks. First-principles calculations suggest that the surface stabilizes networks of configurational isomers, which arise from direct hydrogen transfer between their constituent croconic acid monomers. Some of these configurations have a net polarization. It is demonstrated through constrained molecular dynamics simulations that simultaneous proton transfer between any two molecules can occur spontaneously. This finding is a prerequisite for the occurrence of in-plane ferroelectricity based on proton transfer in 2D sheets

Proton transfer in surface-stabilized chiral motifs of croconic acid

The structure and cooperative proton ordering of two-dimensional sheets of croconic acid were studied with scanning tunneling microscopy and first-principles calculations. Unlike in the crystalline form, which exhibits a pleated, densely packed polar sheet structure, the confinement of the molecules to the surface results in hydrogen-bonded chiral clusters and networks. First-principles calculations suggest that the surface stabilizes networks of configurational isomers, which arise from direct hydrogen transfer between their constituent croconic acid monomers. Some of these configurations have a net polarization. It is demonstrated through constrained molecular dynamics simulations that simultaneous proton transfer between any two molecules can occur spontaneously. This finding is a prerequisite for the occurrence of in-plane ferroelectricity based on proton transfer in 2D sheets